Recovery still on track despite fears of lockdown – but fears for job losses increase

Analysis from Dr John Ashcroft on the economic impact of Covid-19

Our views on recovery are unchanged. We expect output to be down, by around 10% in the third quarter, and down by 5% in the final quarter of the year. Output for the year as a whole, will be down by 10%. Unemployment is set to rise to between 2.5 and 3.0 million, a rate of 7.5% and 8.5%, without any additional extension to the job support scheme.