Dr John Ashcroft

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Recovery still on track despite fears of lockdown – but fears for job losses increase

Analysis from Dr John Ashcroft on the economic impact of Covid-19

Our views on recovery are unchanged. We expect output to be down, by around 10% in the third quarter, and down by 5% in the final quarter of the year. Output for the year as a whole, will be down by 10%. Unemployment is set to rise to between 2.5 and 3.0 million, a rate of 7.5% and 8.5%, without any additional extension to the job support scheme.

V for Victory and the shape of the recovery

Analysis from Dr John Ashcroft on the global social and economic impact of Covid-19

What shape will the recovery be in the UK..? It’s a V, it’s always a V…

We are at the stage in the economic cycle when questions are raised about the shape of the recovery. Pick a letter from the alphabet and make the case. Jerome Powell, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, suggests the American recovery will follow a ‘Slow V’.

Lockdown could be over in weeks

Analysis from Dr John Ashcroft on the global social and economic impact of Covid-19

As the UK case load peaks…
In Italy, the epidemic is slowing down. Following four weeks of shutdown. Italian officials say it will take until Easter to reduce infections sufficiently, to begin a relaxation of quarantine measures. Sections of industry will be urged to return to work, under stringent safety conditions. Italian restaurants and bars are expected to begin to re-open at some stage later in May.

No deal Brexit, will it create another recession?

John Ashcroft, Economist and author of The Saturday Economist, weighs up the evidence.
Britain faces a ‘devastating recession’, a plunging pound and soaring prices if a ‘No deal Brexit’ takes place, according to a recent analysis from ratings agency Moody’s.

Here’s how that works out… In the event of no agreement to an orderly exit from the EU, the UK would face a considerable crisis of confidence leading to a fall in output.

Is this likely?